. >> reporter: in their ferndale, michigan home, ray and brianna scott are underwater. deep underwater. >> it's terrible. it's... it's not the way it should be. >> reporter: six years ago, they bought the house they're raising their two sons in for $132,000. but even with a slight increase in value in recent months, it's now worth only about $80,000. >> we're $50,000, roughly, in the hole. we're probably never going to get that back. >> reporter: not at this rate. the case shiller survey found that in 18 of 20 metropolitan areas, house prices have declined over the past year. only detroit and washington, d.c. have seen slight gains. what will it take for the housing recovery? >> why is there going to be a housing recovery? >> reporter: yale economist robert shiller, co-founder of the case shiller index, has tracked home values back to 1890. >> home prices are not high anymore but they're not low, either, by historical standards. so if confidence were to slip more, home prices could fall further. >> reporter: shiller's chart shows that, leaving out the housing slump duri